Is the Governor of Montana got more than wind power on his mind for building new transmission lines to pump electricity to out of state cities???

Gov. Brian Schweitzer envisions a day when New Yorkers will be driving cars powered by the wind that howls across the Montana prairie. The Democrat recently called on the federal government to spend $15 billion to build a next-generation transmission grid to link such far-flung regions.

“You start delivering wind to cars and the [oil-nation] dictators, they get sad fast,” says Mr. Schweitzer in his Helena office-cum-classroom, where he keeps vials of biofuel feed stock and model windmills to show visitors. He has a lump of coal, too – a reminder that Montana not only has lots of wind to harness, but tons of coal to shovel.

The interior West’s abundance of both green-energy resources and traditional fossil fuels make some watchdogs nervous about a rush to build what has been called an Interstate highway system for electrons. The idea of expanding transmission lines is commonly pitched by politicians as a way to put people to work while removing a crucial obstacle to renewable power.

But it’s not going to be just wind and sun on those wires. “[S]ome proponents of expanding coal-fired electricity production are using windfarms as a rationalization for greatly expanding transmission lines through the region.

They talk a lot about wind power, but their real interest is vastly expanded use of coal in generating electricity,” says Larry Swanson, a regional economist at the O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West at the University of Montana in Missoula.

Schweitzer does not deny that federally funded transmission lines would also help his state’s coal industry. He says he is a strong advocate not just for renewables but for so-called clean coal technologies.

“We’re going to hook some coal into it,” he says. “Fifty percent of the electricity in America comes from coal. I’m all for change, but unless you are willing to live naked in a tree and eat nuts for the next 30 years, coal’s going to be part of the portfolio.”

APWR got creamed today to the tune of 16% after cutting guidance and revenues and earnings due to the world financial crisis.  Barrons comments……..

The China-based power systems firm fell 16% after it cut its fourth-quarter outlook. The company said that some of its contracts had to be postponed because of the difficult economic climate. A-Power now expects income for the quarter to come in at $5, whereas it had previously forecast income of over $15 million. However, as Jesup & Lamont analyst Brian Yerger wrote in a research note earlier in the month, A-Power is in a better position than other energy players, as it “successfully raised fresh capital before the crisis and [is] not in need of additional capital at this time.”

all you have to do is be the closest guesser to the stock price of APWR for the end of the year 12/31/08 closing price. APWR is my horse and I may as well give away a shirt to the end of the year closest guesser. Leave your guess on a COMMENT section on this page entry. Spread the word on Twitter and Yahoo!

Barrons Article on Wind Power
This Utility Will Inherit the Wind
By Teresa Rivas | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
UTILITIES’ RELATIVELY STABLE SALES have limited the sector’s losses this year, but investors looking for a standout from the pack may want to consider FPL Group (ticker: FPL).

The country’s largest wind-power producer, FPL can expect tailwinds from the growing shift toward renewable energy, while its regulated arm will likely get a boost from rate increases next year.

FPL operates two separate divisions: Florida Power and Light, a regulated utility; and the unregulated FPL Energy, which produces the company’s wind power.

“They are the biggest players in the field, the Wal-Mart (WMT) of wind power,” says Jesup Lamont

Bluewater Wind is proposing building a 450MW offshore wind farm off of Delaware coastline 12 miles offshore.  The proposal must pass many hurdles before construction begins but the more you read about offshore wind farms , the more impressed I am with the idea and concept.   The main problem with on shore wind farms is the coastal breezes stop at the shoreline and wind farms need constant , strong winds to maximize investment return on capital.  Bluewater has some great ideas and website is great also!

http://www.BluewaterWind.com

using the ROTH CAPITAL downgrade and EPS for end of 2009 of $1.38 , I am issuing a $13 price target for end of 2009 using EPS of 10 factor for APWR.  Given that APWR has never earned nor recognized a penny of profits or revenues from its up and coming wind power division, this $13 price target is conservative to say the least!!!  No factor is being given for China Government news about paying more for distributed power clean and green power stations which I see as boosting distributed power revenues for 2009 and beyond.  Sure, credit problems world wide will slow the addition of new business but the backlog of 800 million will balance out revenues and the addition of ANY WIND POWER revenues will add to the bottom and top lines!

09:38 APWR A-Power Energy estimates and target cut to $7 at Roth following site visit (5.00 -0.09)

Roth visited APWR’s Shenyang wind turbine facility today. Their observations support their cautious near-term outlook. They expect no wind segment revenue during 4Q08 and a slower ramp during FY09. Furthermore, observed temperatures in key DG locations support their contention that a substantial portion of the company’s backlog is suspended for winter and puts the company’s FY08 net income guidance of $35-45 mln at risk. They are lowering their ‘08 and ‘09 EPS estimates to $0.90 and $1.38 from $0.93 and $1.60 respectively ($1.01/$1.72 consensus) to reflect their updated outlook. They are are lowering their tgt to $7 from $10, reflecting their downwardly revised estimates and a slightly more conservative multiple.

Downside RISK is $4 and Upside Gains are $8, a better gain to loss basis ratio but investors need to stress the LONG TERM investment ideas to profits, dont trade for pennies, INVEST for Dollars!

09:38 APWR A-Power Energy estimates and target cut to $7 at Roth following site visit (5.00 -0.09)

Roth visited APWR’s Shenyang wind turbine facility today. Their observations support their cautious near-term outlook. They expect no wind segment revenue during 4Q08 and a slower ramp during FY09. Furthermore, observed temperatures in key DG locations support their contention that a substantial portion of the company’s backlog is suspended for winter and puts the company’s FY08 net income guidance of $35-45 mln at risk. They are lowering their ‘08 and ‘09 EPS estimates to $0.90 and $1.38 from $0.93 and $1.60 respectively ($1.01/$1.72 consensus) to reflect their updated outlook. They are are lowering their tgt to $7 from $10, reflecting their downwardly revised estimates and a slightly more conservative multiple.

MY TAKE NOW on ROTH Meeting Wind Facility:::: Says in plain english, APWR will miss the 4Q08 Wind timeline they tried to make a year ago, so NO Wind Revs for 2008===No Big Deal given 100% of their profits have come from Distributed Power.  Also, the ”’cold weather” of CHINA has stopped outside construction temporarily as it always does in the dead of winter in deep freeze China.  APWR is a distributed power station building company with a Wind Kicker for 2009 and beyond.  APWR has NEVER EVER realized a penny of revenues or profits from Wind , the wind power side of the biz is  an added growth kicker for 2009 and beyond.  Profits of $1.38 gives you a P/E of 10 which makes $1.38 X 10(P/E) == $13 stock price estimate by Wind4me for END of 2009 is my TARGET PRICE!!!  Results may vary but the BAD NEWS is already baked into the current price.  Short term , could trade down to $4 and change, Upside is $13 for 2009.  Do you trade for pennies or Invest for Dollars????

seems the guys who predicted a ”’strong buy”” at $25 now see a downgrade to $7 with ””’ONLY”"” a $1.38 earnings for 2009…….with a P/E of 10, this gives you a $13 stock for $4 and change.  If you “”INVEST”" , this is a GIFT for end of 2009 and once WIND gains speed in China, APWR soars in 2009!

09:38 APWR A-Power Energy estimates and target cut to $7 at Roth following site visit (5.00 -0.09)

Roth visited APWR’s Shenyang wind turbine facility today. Their observations support their cautious near-term outlook. They expect no wind segment revenue during 4Q08 and a slower ramp during FY09. Furthermore, observed temperatures in key DG locations support their contention that a substantial portion of the company’s backlog is suspended for winter and puts the company’s FY08 net income guidance of $35-45 mln at risk. They are lowering their ‘08 and ‘09 EPS estimates to $0.90 and $1.38 from $0.93 and $1.60 respectively ($1.01/$1.72 consensus) to reflect their updated outlook. They are are lowering their tgt to $7 from $10, reflecting their downwardly revised estimates and a slightly more conservative multiple.

APWR produces Distributed Power and another $146 per Kilowatt makes DP more cost effective!

SHANGHAI government announced yesterday that it would improve incentives for local factories and businesses that install an energy-saving power generation system inside their buildings.

The system, named Distributed Generation, is based on a small gas-fueled power generation unit. Operators build these units on site, rather than take power from the national grid, which is powered by coal-fired power stations, usually located far away from power users.

Energy is saved because the distance between the power generator and the user is greatly shortened. In a traditional power grid, up to 70 percent of generated electricity is wasted during its transmission.

“Usually only 30 to 47 percent of electricity generated by large power plants is consumed by users,” said Pan Yahong, an engineer with the Shanghai Branch of China Huadian Corp. “The rest is wasted during transmission. But the Distributed Generation system ensures a low rate of wastage and could improve usage efficiency to up to 89 percent.” Huadian is a major promoter of the system to the Chinese market.

Distributed Generation also cuts power usage by collecting the heat given off during the power-generation process and using it to heat buildings.

Because it uses natural gas rather than coal, the system could lower greenhouse emissions by 34 to 61 percent, a United States survey found, according to a report on the China Energy Service Website (www.chinaesco.net).

The government yesterday announced it would raise the subsidy paid to those companies that install the system. Building owners will be paid 1,000 yuan (US$146) for each kilowatt of capacity their generator has.

The subsidy was 700 yuan when Shanghai first announced the subsidy policy in August 2005.

Local users, such as the Minhang District Central Hospital and Pudong International Airport, will also continue to enjoy discounted natural gas, said officials.

The allowance compensates the expense of buying and installing the gas generators.

The system could reduce operational cost of offices by 11 percent, and that of hospitals by 21 percent, according to the US survey.

borrowed from Ceegle:::

Economic Moat

• A-Power is the only experienced provider of local distributed power generation systems and micro power networks in China, and has completed 13 projects to date, ranging from 6MW to 400MW.

• Inroads with Chinese government and state-owned energy producing companies in a heavily regulated market with high barriers to entry

• Strategic location in Shenyang, China. Major industrial hub with proximity to future wind farms and easy access to ports and highways.

• Licensed leading European wind turbine technology through Fuhrlander of Germany and Norwin of Denmark.

• Strategic partnerships with top Chinese research institutions, Tsinghua University and the China Academy of Science. A-Power will own rights to 70% of new technologies developed by the China Academy of Science.

Valuation

A-Power has a proven financial track record with robust top-line growth (> 100% YOY) and consistent bottom line profitability. The company has considerable visibility with future income via DPG and wind turbine production (over 2B backlog with both), and has a strong balance sheet with no debt to provide sufficient working capital.

The main source of revenue is through DPG. Currently, APWR has over 800M in revenue backlog, not counting a 300M Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that the company believes will shortly be translated into a contract. See catalyst section below. The company also has orders for over 1B USD of wind turbines. A second wind turbine facility is coming online in mid 2009, with full wind turbine production scheduled for early 2010.

A-Power has maintained a high ROE of 25%, and currently has an excellent balance sheet with 50M in cash and no long-term debt. The company, in a November conference call, maintained 2009 revenue and earnings projections and considered organizing a stock buy-back due to what the CEO stated was an “undervalued share price.”