Archive for January 11th, 2009

I cannot read Chinese but here is the Google translation out on the wires

If you search Chinese word ???????? on Google. You will find the news already released in China. If you can not read Chinese, you can use google translate.

“APWR will also work with GE to jointly invest to build Asia’s largest wind power gear box production base, production of various types of wind power gear box is expected to total investment will reach 100 million U.S. dollars, an annual production value of up to 60 billion yuan.”

Gear Box is bottleneck for Chinese wind turbine business now. This joint venture will give APWR hugh credit.

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  • Dec 31, 2008
    Author: SCP Editor

    December 31, 2008 – Analyst Comments – Jesup & Lamont’s Brian Yerger weighed in on A-Power’s (Nasdaq:APWR) recent revision downward, and the subsequent selloff in its stock, rating the stock a BUY this morning with a $14 price target, a considerably higher level than yesterday’s closing price of $4.11. Here are his takeaways:

    ·         While APWR’s management revised 2008 guidance, it didn’t revise 2009 guidance, which is at net income of $70 million, with EPS estimated at $2;

    ·         Yerger is lowering 2008 and 2009 estimates. His 2009 revenue estimate has moved to $625.3 million from $756 million and his new EPS estimate is revised lower to $1.44 from $1.92.

    ·         Yerger believes that APWR’s shares are “attractively valued” at current levels and represent an opportunity for risk tolerant investors to exposure to China’s surging energy market.

    ·         Revised price target down from $19 to $14 based on 10x multiple of expected FY2009 earnings per share.

    We agree with Yerger that A-Power’s stock is attractive at current levels and think the risk, as well as adjusted estimates are likely priced into the stock at current levels. Our price target for the stock is in the $7 to $8 range, however, because we think there is a ‘believe-ability’ factor which APWR lacks right now with the Street and until it gets its communications strategy in order to begin building a stronger sense that it is credible, it will continue to get a significant discount to its growth and market opportunity.

    Important Disclosure: The SCPEditor is does not hold any position (Long or Short) in APWR. The information and trades provided here and in the comments are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance.

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  • Corn does not work, when will Wall Street and mid America wake up and smell the failure known as ethanol???  Making ethanol from corn has not worked , will not work, and in the future, the stench will NOT get any better nor make anymore financial sense than it does today………..stop the madness of trying to make fuel out of corn!!

    CHICAGO — Corn producers have gotten a holiday gift in the form of rising prices, but that rally is a lump of coal for one big corn customer, the ethanol industry.

    Corn’s rally also comes as crude-oil prices sag, something that has put even more pressure on profit margins in an ethanol industry in which many producers already were in a precarious state, with multiple factory closures, analysts say.

    The price of the corn futures contract for March delivery has climbed to as high as $4.26 a bushel Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade from $3.0925 on Dec. 5. …

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  • 17 utilities defying costs and risking the shareholders money for what result???? Answer:: the Most Expensive Way in world to boil water.  Utilities have almost gone bankrupt before building nuclear and the quickest way to reinvent the wheel is to forget past history as costs will crush the utilities applying for these 26 new nuclear units.   And all the while, the distributed power model of building small, concise incremental units closer to the demand is ignored in the USA.   Thank god the rest of the world does NOT think as stupid as the USA utility crowd.  Build it “”TEXAS BIG”"‘ and they will come………..sorry, these utilities are cruising towards financial armegedden as they ignore past history of risking the entire utility shareholders base over the title of building the first nuclear unit in 30 years……….there is a reason NOBDOY has built a nuke unit in 30 years, its called “”RETURN ON INVESTMENT”"”. 

    After a decadeslong winter of discontent, a confluence of favorable events during the last 10 years has provided a spark to America’s nuclear industry.

    With no major U.S. accidents during that period, public opinion has slowly swung in favor of splitting atoms to meet the country’s voracious power demands. The cost of natural gas — a competitor to nuclear — spiked to $13 per thousand cubic feet last year, although it has since fallen. And in a world worried about carbon dioxide, nuclear energy stands out, because it produces virtually no greenhouse gases.

    Finally, during a Bush administration friendly to nuclear power, the federal government has begun providing generous loan guarantees for new reactor construction.

    Because of these trends, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission during the last two years has received 17 applications for 26 new nuclear reactors, most of them at existing facilities. And during this year something will likely happen that hasn’t in three decades: A U.S. power provider is expected to receive a license to begin clearing land for a new reactor.

    “There’s clearly momentum building in favor of nuclear energy,” said Sean McDeavitt, a Texas A&M University assistant professor of nuclear engineering.

    Among the first to apply for a license was NRG Texas, which seeks to expand its existing South Texas Project near Bay City. The two proposed units, which the company expects would begin operations by 2016, would produce an additional 2,660 megawatts, enough electricity to supply 2.1 million homes.

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  • Its time for me to weigh in my .02 cents for the Trillion dollar bail out package proposed by the green Obama team. Everyone talks about the first black president of the United States of America but like me, they are color blinded by Mr. Obama, he is really the first ever GREEN President which is going to make a huge difference over time given the needs and the pollution of this great country.

    The only way to create green jobs is to have a plan which returns investments into green jobs into renewable energy which will power our plug in cars and power our return to economic reality. Right now, Detroit is speeding down an electric plug in hybrid car road with the GM Volt and everyone and their mother going to introduce a plug in electric car. Where will we get the power to plug in all these plug in cars Detroit is proposing to build??? The answer is dirty polluting coal if we don’t get the green Obama team to build wind power and create wind jobs in the rust belt states. Having a national energy policy will be a first and the only way to power all these electric cars is wind. Wind has a 10 to 1 performance per dollar invested over solar power in current economic returns of today’s ROI.

    Creating a national wind energy policy will solve all problems of the upcoming new administration, creating jobs and renewable energy and having a source of clean power to power the upcoming electric cars of tomorow while creating jobs today. Mr green Obama , I beg you to go wind to solve all our problems of tomorrow today and deliver on your promises of 15 billion into renewables Jan 20th at the latest ! After all, most folks in the USA are color blind so do the right thing and go green with wind.

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  • LOWELL, Vt.—Green Mountain Power Corp. and Vermont Electric Cooperative are exploring the potential of building a wind power facility on Lowell Mountain in the Northeast Kingdom.

    Organizers say the project called Kingdom Community Wind could include 12 to 17 wind turbines, generating 30 to 42 megawatts of electricity or enough to power 15,000 Vermont households.

    The ridge line is owned by Trip Wileman of Lowell, who is proposing the project.

    The utilities have been talking with Wileman about investing in the project, estimated to cost between $80 million and $125 million.

    The ridge line is owned by Trip Wileman of Lowell, who is proposing the project.

    The utilities have been talking with Wileman about investing in the project, estimated to cost between $80 million and $125 million.

    “We are interested in exploring the potential of building this project because we know our customers want energy that is low cost, low in carbon emissions and reliable,” said GMP president Mary Powell. “Developing the project with Vermont owners would help to assure price stability for generations of Vermonters.”

    Project developers plan to seek permission to install test towers in the next several months. They also plan to meet with local boards in the nearby towns, from where the wind towers would be visible.

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  • China Wind Weiji and A Power Energy

    There is opportunity and danger ahead in the Chinese Wind Market…….
    The Chinese word for crisisis weiji.

    But get this – when translated literally, wei means danger and ji means opportunity. So to the Chinese, a crisis – or danger – represents an opportunity.

    Of course, you don’t have to actually speak Chinese to understand what this mindset means for investors.

    What you’re seeing in China today is nothing less than the classic definition of a crisis presenting the profit opportunity of a lifetime.

    If the rumors of a GE partnership coming with APWR are actually true, I see an opportunity of a lifetime ahead for those with the foresight to invest into APWR. FULL DISCLOSURE::: Author is LONG APWR!

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  • well, its not ”’WIND”’ and SOLAR has five letters………the four letter word is COAL
    The Obama administration has made a big deal about renewable energy. Over the next several years, the new President has plans to spend roughly $150 billion promoting and enabling its growth. And with $700 billion flowing from the United States into OPEC’s pockets every year, I don’t think you’ll get much of an argument from anyone about the timeliness or the need for renewables.

    But even with massive amounts of capital investment – and widespread adoption by utilities and end users – renewable energy will still only account for roughly 10% of world energy output by 2030, an increase of only three percentage points from today’s estimated 7% contribution. Depending on whom you talk to, however, that estimate is wildly optimistic.

    The stark reality of worldwide energy production is a dirty, four-letter word: coal. Since the beginning of the 21st century, its worldwide consumption has outpaced any other fuel source, growing nearly 5% per year. This, too, in the face of prices that have escalated every year since 2000.

    Consider 97% of that growth has occurred in emerging market countries, most notably China and India. They’ve respectively accounted for 66% and 19% of the total increase.

    To keep up with the demand, world coal production is projected to increase by nearly 60% by 2030. Every major coal producing country will see huge increases in its coal output: China will almost double its output, India’s will more than double and Russia’s will rise almost 75%.

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