I spent the entire evening reading the 20F Filing required by SEC for foreign companies traded on nasdaq listed board. APWR in past 3 weeks has dropped almost 50% so this is the perfect time for ”’NEW INVESTORS”’ to get a jump on the future into clean power player for China in riding the APWR clean power train. Future sales are going to be off the charts 2010 and beyond. Till then, the stock will probably trade back and forth till the Shenyang Power Alliance is figured out by future investors. Best part of 20F is that APWR came straight out and basically said ””WE dont have any competitors in the 24MW – 400MW power plant construction process doing 100% turn key projects. APWR always has an always will be a distributed clean power plant production company building power inside China. Future contracts will come from inside and outside China in SE Asia.

100% of all revenues have come from power plant construction in the past and the majority will come from power plant construction with added wind sales in 2010 going forward. So, as I have said all along, APWR builds clean power plants and has a thrown in kicker in the wind growth side down the road. However, the bread always has and always will be butterred by clean power plant production and profits are printed by power plant construction. The wind side is just an added bonus for 2011 and beyond. GE joint venture will produce huge wind revenues into 2011 and beyond.

Dont let the 20F scare you off with all the warnings and precautions and accumulate with both hands at this low low price. APWR sold for $15 3 weeks ago so sub $8 is a gift for the future. Buy AGGRESSIVELY under $8!

the reason I am so high on APWR going forward is for the China stimulus spending……..
The official in Energy Bureau said that the plan on boosting new energy “will soon be released”.
With the oncoming release of the plan on boosting new energy and adjustment on relative development goals, it is predicted that in 2020, the overall investment on new energy will be over 3 trillion yuan.
This information is disclosed by Liang Zhipeng, the chief of New Energy Section, National Energy Bureau, in the fourth Renewable Energy Financial Forum held in Beijing yesterday.
Liang Zhipeng said, the new energy plan which is being made will only make arrangements for the next three years, instead of from 2009 to 2020 as the rumor in the market. He also said that the plan “will soon be released”.
It is said that the draft of the plan has already been completed, opinions from the representative enterprises and local development and reform departments have already been collected, and now opinions from ministries and commissions are being collected. At the end of last month, an official who was involved in the plan making told a CBN journalist that different sections of the plan had been assigned to related departments to compile. The comparison of these two pieces of information indicates that the plan is progressing very quickly.
“Some figures in the draft haven’t been confirmed, so it’s still not possible to calculate the investment in the following three years.” During the break of the forum, Liang Zhipeng told the reporters that a series of goals related will be dramatically changed since the development of new energy has gained great momentum in recent years. However, he refused to confirm the figures going aroud in the market.
Taking wind power electricity and solar energy power industry as an example, according to the “Middle and Long term Plan on Renewable Energy” released by the government in 2007, the installed capacity of these two industries in 2020 will be respectively 30 million kw. and 1.8 million kw.. However, Li Junfeng, vice director of Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, who attended the forum yesterday, said that the two figures will respectively exceed 100 million kw. and 10million kw. by then.
However, Liang Zhifeng reminded, “Don’t excessively focus on the figures. The key is to nail down the development direction of new energy. As long as the direction is right and the conditions are provided, the government will not restrain your development”.

How will Americans react to the Clean Energy Plan???

What companies will benefit??? How will states with high coal burning plants hit 20% by 2025???

Lots of questions, not many answers presently but never short of opinions from me…….Coal states are not going to like this renewable power percentage and will scream bloody murder in the process as higher energy prices will likely be coming to USA consumers. New green jobs like 5000 here in Colorado from Vestas will be used by politicians to overcome adversity from critics(mainly Coal companies).

Lets face reality, WE as a society are going to have to pay higher prices as we switch new power from polluting coal to wind and geothermal and solar. If we as a society do not switch to renewables, our grandchildren will not have a world worth inheriting so we may as well all pitch in and PROFIT from this congressional change and the Obama promises of clean power for Sasha and Maleawa(sp?).

Anything in wind power, ie BWEN, Vestas, AMSC, KDN, Zoltek is going to soar down the road imho given the push for wind power. Geothermal is going to be used in 7 western states but most are not worth investing in because of their balance sheets or lack there of. The only geothermals I like is Ormat (ORA), the 800# gorilla in geothermal and the baby soon to be producing green power Nevada Geothermal NGLPF.ob, a very much more risky high reward, high return play in pure green power.

All in all, we as a society are finally going to get it right down the road so the critics may as well join in and profit along the way as we save Mother Earth

How does the House passing the Clean Energy Bill going to help my geothermal baby??? Very well given time and exposure considering there is only so much clean energy out there in USA given our addiction on coal power and the extreme costs of solar and the NIMBY’s blocking wind power.

Nevada Geothermal is going to soar one day soon as somebody besides me figures out a clean producing power station pumping 49MW’ of green power is extremely valuable given the ability of Nevada Geothermal to expand once power is achieved which allows the banks to refi the existing loan for more money and the government low cost loans NGLPF.ob is currently applying for.

Here are the bullet points on the Clean Energy Bill::: Note the 20% renewable by 2025

Requires electric utilities to meet 20% of their electricity demand through renewable energy sources and energy efficiency by 2020.
Invests $190 billion in new clean energy technologies and energy efficiency, including energy efficiency and renewable energy ($90 billion in new investments by 2025), carbon capture and sequestration ($60 billion), electric and other advanced technology vehicles ($20 billion), and basic scientific research and development ($20 billion).
Mandates new energy-saving standards for buildings, appliances, and industry.
Reduces carbon emissions from major U.S. sources by 17% by 2020 and over 80% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. Complementary measures in the legislation, such as investments in preventing tropical deforestation, will achieve significant additional reductions in carbon emissions.
Protects consumers from energy price increases. According to recent analyses from the Congressional Budget Office and the Environmental Protection Agency, the legislation will cost each household less than 50 cents per day in 2020 (not including energy efficiency savings).

Well, consolidation is coming to the wind turbine business and this bidding war between Gamesa and Vestas over Hansen Gearbox Maker from Suzlon is the first big bang heard round the world. More and more consolidation is coming to the wind turbine business and Suzlon being forced to sell the gearbox maker it recently aquired is the exact example I am talking about when companies must sell components or they go under. Suzlon and Acconia and others are struggling as Vestas and GE battle Siemens with around 70% of the world wide market share. All the others in the world are scrambling for table scraps as Vestas, GE , and Siemens are taking market share from struggling worldwide credit crisis in financing renewable wind farms.

Below was cut and pasted from ET:::
MUMBAI: Spanish wind turbine maker Gamesa and Vestas of Denmark are in the race to acquire London-listed Hansen Transmissions from Pune-based Suzlon
Energy. A person close to the deal said Tulsi Tanti-controlled Suzlon, the world’s fifth-largest and India’s biggest turbine maker, is expected to seal the deal by this weekend.

Suzlon is learnt to have convened a board meeting on Saturday to discuss its consolidated financial results for FY09 and the sale of its entire 61% stake in Hansen, said the same person.

The deal size is expected to be above $1 billion, a premium to the ruling market price of the Hansen stock. The market capitalisation of Hansen is pegged at around $1.6 billion. The stock was trading at £1.50 ($2.47) on the London Stock Exchange, 6.4% higher than the previous close, at the time of going of going to press. At this price, Suzlon’s stake is valued at slightly less than $1 billion.

The exact deal size will depend on the control premium Suzlon commands from the buyer and the liabilities of the target company, said an investment banker. Suzlon COO Sumant Sinha declined to comment. ET was the first to report on Suzlon’s move to sell Hansen in its edition dated June 15.

“Belgian company Hansen supplies gearbox to turbine makers. The sale decision is not the best strategy for Suzlon,” the analyst, who did not wish to be named, said. The proposed sale is part of an overall restructuring plan put together by JP Morgan and Macquarie that seeks to reduce Hansen’s debt of Rs 12,000 crore and provide bondholders with an agreeable exit option.

In January, Suzlon had sold 10% of its Hansen stake to investment firm Ecofin for Rs 600 crore. Suzlon holds its stake in Hansen through a subsidiary called AE-Rotor Holding.

Meanwhile, Suzlon announced on Thursday that it will pay $1.87 million incentive fee to bondholders, as part of a plan to pare debt. The total principal amount of the bonds outstanding is $ 121 million.The Suzlon stock closed flat at Rs 117.85 on BSE on Thursday.

In less than 24 hours, the U.S. House of Representatives will vote to determine the fate of the American Clean Energy & Security Act (H.R. 2454). Please contact your Member of Congress to ask him or her to vote in favor of this legislation.

A renewable electricity standard (RES) is a policy to ensure that a growing percentage of electricity is produced from renewable sources, like wind power. To create a long-term commitment to renewable energy, the U.S. needs to adopt a strong national RES. This policy would foster a sound investment climate for renewable energy manufacturers to invest billions of dollars in new facilities and employ hundreds of thousands of Americans in high-quality jobs.

Although the current RES provisions aren’t reaching President Obama’s campaign goal of 25% renewable energy by 2025, passing this bill out of the House of Representatives is an important step in the legislative process. We also ask that you contact your Senators and ask them to help strengthen the RES in their version of the bill that will come up for a vote in the near future.

Goldwind is the leader in China right now matched by Sinovel in wind energy. Following article talks about Sinovel and China wind power but you can basically double this for Goldwind and these two make up about 60% of China wind for companies inside China. This is the reason APWR could easily tap into the non existent market in China given the potential growth coming in next five years. APWR is going to be a player in the year 2010 in China Wind.

…. in China on business this week and I was sitting in my hotel lobby reading the Wednesday edition of the China Daily Newspaper. There is a very nice article on Sinvel and their wind energy projects. It is quite long but a few of the highlights:(((this article was cut and pasted by me from somebody else in China)))

Feb. 2007 signed joint design and development agreement with Windtec for 3mw design.
Jan 2009 aqssembly and test of prototype machines, in factory tests commenced.
March 2009 nthe first 3mw turbine shipped for an off shore wind project.
they expect to have 31 units of the 3mw ready to ship by november 2009

Total capacity installed by the end of 2008 was 3000 mw. THey are the largest turine mfdg (based on installed base) in china and 7th largest in the world.

They installed 935 turbines (1400 mw) in 2008 which was 22.5% of the capacity installed in china overall.
They expect exports to account for 30-40 of revenues in five years.
They expect the 3 mw design will become the mainstream and dominant design, worldwide in the next several years.

A second article talks about offshore wind in general in china:

It states that the total addressable market in china is 1000 GW. 700 GW of this is offshore and 300 gw is on land. The offshore is going to be used to power industry that is located near the coast all up and down China and will n ot use precious land resources in the those area.s

Total installed wind power in China is now over 10GW and over 120 GW worldwide. (this means that CHina feels they can install over 8 times the current world market in CHina alone and get a substantual percentage of electrical power from this resource.

The east sea bridge wind power plant (offshore near Shanghai) is the first large scale offshore project in china. (This is a sinovel project) They talk a bit about the installation challenges offshore vs. onshore. Etc.

APWR: Self-Off Creates Buying Opportunity. Reducing Estimates to Account for Dilution Related to Sale of $40 Million in Senior Convertible Notes. Price Target to $12.50 from $14.00.

FY09 Earnings to $0.88 from $0.95.
FY10 Earnings to $1.25 from $1.40.

Key Points:
• We are re-iterating our Buy rating on APWR. The company’s shares have declined in excess of 40% primarily
as a result of its Q109 miss (June 16) and its subsequent announced sale of $40 million in senior convertible
notes (June 19). We believe the pullback is overdone and that an investment in APWR at current levels
represents a favorable risk/reward opportunity. Our $12.50 price target is based on 10x our FY10 earnings
estimate of $1.25. APWR is currently trading at 5.9x FY10 earnings, has $1.80 in cash (ex-raise), and no debt.

• We continue to expect the company to announce additional Distributed Power Generation (DG) contracts in
the coming months, enabling it to increase its FY09 guidance of $320 million in revenue and $32 million in net
income. In particular, we believe the company is in negotiations to finalize a contract(s) in Thailand that could
add $300 million over approximately 3 years. Additionally, the Shenyang Power Alliance enables APWR to bid
on large projects both within and outside of China. The Shenyang Government owns 20% of the Alliance and
will guarantee up to $300 million in project financing. Underlying APWR’s DG growth potential in China is the
continued increase in energy consumption, the country’s overstrained grid, and increased emphasis on energy
conservation.

• Though we continue to see execution risk associated with APWR’s ramp-up of its wind turbine business, we
believe the shipment of its first two units (expected by the end of July) could act as a catalyst for APWR shares.
We are modeling the company to produce and ship 13 of its 2.7MW turbines by year-end as opposed to the
company’s production plan (not guidance) that calls for 30. We note APWR has not included revenue from its
wind turbine business in its guidance.

My TAKE on the Dougherty report::: Good analysis but too light on the wind turbines for end of 2009, they using 13, I think APWR can mistakenly make 20 even though mgt has said 30.

all in all, too light a price target based on what is going to come into 2010, market will be forward looking given what will take place later 2009 into 2010 with more DPG, Shenyang Power Alliance , and the Vietnam and Pakistan contracts along with the almost sure Thailand warm weather contract during winter 2009 into 2010.

As anyone who stumbles onto this blog knows, I eat my own cooking and I have been eating a lot of new shares of APWR in last 4 days. Now, I miss as I always do the ”exact”’ bottom but got within .10 cents this time which is closer than usual for stupid me and my timing issues.

After a 50% haircut in two weeks (((can U say OVERREACTION and market sell off ))) after a 230% increase in the 3 month price of APWR, a 50% haircut was actuallly warranted and needed to consolidate and let folks in or out as they traded their ways into internet history. In 2011, getting APWR at $7.22 will be the STEAL of 2009 for APWR. Some of the longs who were buying back in November or December of 2008, the high mid $3’s were the GIFT and most longs already traded in and out again so the upward moves will be swift and sharp if and when the Thailand contract is announced with the DEPOSIT RECEIVED, APWR prints a PR and the stock will go up at least 30% in one day. Dont beleive me, go ahead an short this stock!

We have NOT seen anything from the Shenyang Power Alliance, the Thailand contract, the Vietnamese contract and I wont even mention Pakistan 1000MW contract for next year.

If and when ANY of these contracts come, 30% spike north coming immeidiately. More than one, APWR will hit my 2009 end of year target of $19. We already blew through my 2009 price target of $13 I set in January when the world was dying and nobody beleived. Look what happenned!

With General Electric, WE ,the APWR shareholders have a ‘’sugar daddy”’ for Wind going forward in China. With the Chinese communist party backing the Shenyang Power Alliance, we have a sugar daddy in China for power projects. With Thailand, Pakistan, and Vietnam all needing new green power, we have foreign countries with a huge DEMAND for green power which is a ”’wind wind”” for APWR down the road.

9% up today, more to come as the contracts pan out and are announced! “”"”STRONG BUY”"”" at this price point, do NOT hesitate, he who watches this soar to $19 end of 2009, dont say U were not told. Just like predicting the awful 1Q09, sometimes, even a Blind Hog Finds an Acorn Once in a While”’

What happenned to APWR in the last 2 weeks???? What happenned to the solars in China last 2 weeks?? Did the tide turn and China decided not to spend that stimulus money ??? Answer to all of the above is nobody knows for sure but the reality is that China is going to build more wind power in next 5 years than entire world added together.

APWR has dropped 50% in past 2 weeks and if you have just stumbled upon my wind blog, one mans trash is another mans cash. I have been buying last 5 days in APWR for the future. Sure the stock has dropped but the company is in better shape today than they were six months ago. Guessing the short term investors forgot APWR just raised guidance an net income for the year and can raise guidance anytime they land a new DPG contract of which they are scheduled to land multiple new wins by end of 2009.

Well, WHY then did APWR drop 50% in last 2 weeks????? Answer, they raised cash to expand their business model and they missed their quarterly estimates by a few pennies. Reason to dump the stock??? Hardly!

I am going to CONTINUE buying as APWR drops for the future……..this aint for next months rent money and this aint for the faint of heart cause when U see the Thailand contract appear, the stock will skyrocket. Till then, it will probably continue to drop given the mood of the world for renewable energy at this present moment!