Why am I researching Pakistan of all places for new power plants?? Answer:: APWR is going to announce a power project inside Pakistan before 2010 is gone and done imho. APWR told us about Pakistan during the conference call and I am betting we read a PR about Pakistan before 2009 is over.

Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 5,568twh, accounting for 78.41% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 7,043twh, implying 30.20% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 76.57% – thanks partly to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Pakistan’s thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 63twh, or 1.13% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to still account for 1.13% of thermal generation.

For Pakistan, gas is the dominant fuel, accounting for 47.5% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2007, followed by oil at 30.7%, hydro-electric energy at 12.9% and coal with a 7.9% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 4,881mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 32.00% growth from the estimated 2008 level. Pakistan’s estimated 2008 market share of 1.55% is set to ease to 1.44% by 2013. The country’s estimated 2.5twh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 5.0twh by 2013, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from 0.47% to 0.76% over the period.

Pakistan is now ranked third behind India in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Rating, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) generation and healthy power consumption/energy demand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country is in a good position to keep clear of Malaysia below.

BMI forecasts Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 4.27% a year between 2008 and 2013, with the 2009 estimate at 2.50%. The population is expected to expand from 161mn to 177mn, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption increasing by 54% and 11% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 81twh in 2008 to 99twh by the end of the forecast period, which provides a relatively stable theoretical generation surplus (before transmission losses etc), assuming 4.3% annual growth in electricity generation.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 63.2%, which is mid-range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 27.2% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 28.2% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 20.5% in 2008-2013 to 25.8%, representing 51.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 51% in hydro-power use during 2007- 2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 57% between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear usage up 407% from a low base. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.

BEIJING, July 21 (Reuters) – China has launched an unprecedented plan to offer hefty subsidies to independent solar power projects, a move that sparked a rally in the sector on Tuesday.

Shares of Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd (STP.N) soared 9 percent, Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd (YGE.N) climbed 10 percent, Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) rose nearly 9 percent and JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd (JASO.O) was trading nearly 8 percent higher.

“This is very positive for the solar sector and positive for solar stocks out there,” said Christine Wang, an analyst with HSBC.

Beijing’s bid to boost the solar energy sector could draw more than $10 billion in private funding for projects and put China on track to become a leading market for solar equipment in the next three years. [ID:nHKG193]

As the world’s top greenhouse gas polluter, China is trying to catch up in a global race to find alternatives to fossil fuels, blamed for carbon emissions affecting the planet’s climate.

The Ministry of Finance said the government will subsidize 50 percent of investment for solar power projects as well as relevant power transmission and distribution systems that connect to grid networks.

For independent photovoltaic power generating systems in remote regions that have no power supply, the subsidy will rise to 70 percent, the ministry said in an announcement on its website (www.mof.gov.cn).

Grid companies are required to buy all surplus electricity output from solar power projects that generate primarily for the developers’ own needs, at similar rates to benchmark on-grid tariffs set for coal-fired power generators.

To qualify for the subsidy, in addition to other requirements, each project must have a generating capacity of at least 300 kilowatt peak, while construction will have to be completed in one year and operations will have to last for at least 20 years.

The government plans to install more than 500 megawatts of solar power pilot projects in two to three years. But the total generating capacity in such pilot projects in each province in principle should not exceed 20 megawatts, the ministry said.

In March, the Finance Ministry said it would provide 20 yuan per watt peak (Wp) of subsidy for projects attached to buildings that have capacity of more than 50 kilowatt peak, which could cut the power generating cost by around half to about 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

China is expected to raise its 2020 solar power generation target more than fivefold to at least 10 GW. With incentives, analysts expect over 2 GW in new solar capacity will be installed as early as 2011, up from just over 100 MW in 2008.

JA Solar climbed 36 cents to $4.92 on Nasdaq, Yingli Green Energy rose $1.30 to $12.70 on the New York Stock Exchange, Trina Solar climbed $2.30 to $28.70 and Suntech was $1.62 higher at $17.81 on the NYSE. (Additional reporting by Eadie Chen and Anna Driver in Houston; Editing by Ben Tan and Derek Caney)