thanks to Marie 4 the due diligence of a Freudian slip for the 3rd and 4th Quarter earnings estimates

Joe Maxa – Dougherty & Company

I wanted to get a little more color on the expectations for the second half. Obviously it’s a very back-end loaded with your DG business. Can you give us some color on which projects you are expecting to account for that roughly $230 million over the last six months of the year?

[Foreign Language]

Peter Mak

This is Peter Mak. Basically we have 17 contracts ongoing to date and then in the last quarter, the second quarter, a few of them relates to biomass as fuel project. We’re subject to a little bit delay because we want to enhance the design to customize to clients needs and these designs has been completed. So we will be able to catch up with the revenue from these biomass projects. So your question relates to the second half of the revenue, I believe that our existing 17 contracts will continue to provide a basis for us to recognize revenue to achieve the remaining $260 million.
———-

Has no one else noticed anything with respect to Mak’s statement?

Read the very last sentence.

$88,700,000 to date. $320,000,000 formal guidance.

As Maxa “estimates” = remaining 6 months need $230m – actually it is $231,300,000.

So….why does Mak say they expect the 17 contracts to continue to be the basis to achieve the remaining: $260,000,000.

Looks to me like Mak’s figure is already $28,700,000 more. Which equals $348,700.000. Freudian slip? Or does he already “bottom line” know?

Occasionally, some metric comes along that actually RINGS a BELL and makes one perk up and take notice. With (APWR) selling off today to the tune of 6.5%, the APWR valuation is less than one times Revenues and is less than half 2010 expected conservative revenue estimates of over 600 Million. So, for you VALUE investors, you get a few chances along the way to add signifigantly on no news for the APWR swoon from over $14 two months ago to around $8 today based on APWR not meeting unrelalistic stupid estimates by analysts on earnings quarterly. With so many shares short, this is going to be classic MONSTER SHORT squeeze once news hits and the Thailand contract news could come any day soon.!

At one times 2009 revenues and LESS than .5% 2010 RAMPING REVENUES, buying APWR with both hands for the classic short squeeze north!
Author is LONG APWR and added today at $8.09
Themes: Wind Power, China, Shenyang Power Alliance Stocks: APWR, GE, VWDRY.PK

Why did I add more??? The downside is .50 cents, the UPSIDE is $5 short term

the RISK REWARD ratio is in your favor short and long term

Sure, APWR could do down some more but the UPSIDE with 5.4 million SHORT is too much upside to ignore and not take advantage of long term and short term!

Wyoming wind power, if reasonably developed, would more than double the amount of electricity produced by all other sources in the state, a representative of the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority said Wednesday.

Wyoming wind ultimately could produce about 15,000 megawatts a year, Steve Ellenbecker told the Wind Energy Task Force at the McMurry Training Center.

“Fifteen-thousand megawatts is a threshold we could accomplish,” Ellenbecker said.

But that goal means nothing without the ability to move the power to market, he said. “We can develop as much wind as we can build transmission for.”

With the transmission in place, the goal is stunning.

By way of comparison, all Wyoming facilities such as the Jim Bridger and Dave Johnston power plants produce about 6,000 MW a year, he said. One megawatt can power 300 homes.

Of that total, about 2,000 MW are used in Wyoming, Ellenbecker said. Wyoming also imports power from hydroelectric facilities in the Pacific Northwest, he said.

Wind now produces about 800 MW of the state’s total 6,000 MW, he said. “It’s already become a meaningful part of energy generation.”

But that 800 MW taps out the system until more transmission lines are built, said Ellenbecker, the director of governmental and external relations for the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority, which has the job of diversifying and expanding the economy by improving the transmission system and promoting clean coal technology.

That 800 MW production exceeds the “renewable portfolio standards” set by many western states and provinces that require a certain percentage of their power — usually starting at 5 percent — be generated by wind, solar and other renewable sources, Ellenbecker said.

Wyoming does not have a renewable portfolio standard, but it has huge potential to meet needs elsewhere, he said.

According to the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Wyoming has a potential of nearly 139,000 MW that could be generated by wind power, or more than half the total 277,000 MW estimate of all western states and provinces, Ellenbecker said.

But reality drastically cuts Wyoming’s potential, which is still enormous, he said.

Ellenbecker arrived at the 15,000 MW estimate by considering cost and regulatory issues, and ruling out areas that are environmentally sensitive, culturally significant, impractical, scenically valuable, and other reasons.

To reach that goal he proposed developing 3,000 MW portions that include the wind farms, a system to collect the electricity for transmission, and a transmission system to send it out of state, he said.

Each 3,000 MW portion would create $2 billion in direct and employment benefits and tax revenues during construction, $316 million in benefits per year of operation, and 176 long-term, well-paying jobs, he said.

for those not familiar with my mantra of APWR for the future, the CEO Mr Lu, details his vision for the future of APWR and providing China and the world clean energy going forward………this company imho will become the “”"NEXT FIRST SOLAR”"” of China and First Solar stock price went from $5 to $600 in two years so when she turns, she will turn hard NORTH!

Mr. Lu concluded, “Looking forward, we will capitalize on China’s rapid growth of the clean energy market, spurred by bold, committed government support. On the DG side, we expect to rapidly deploy various systems domestically and at the same time work with the Shenyang Power alliance to explore other large-scale projects overseas. To compete effectively in the wind turbine sector, we will continue to implement the strategy of partnering with the best technologies in the world and at the same time pursuing vertical integration to be a low-cost wind turbine producer in China. We anticipate the various partnerships and acquisitions we have recently started or completed will gradually integrate into a robust business in one of the world’s fastest- growing wind power market.”

thanks ROCK999 for pointing this out from the Conf Call!

soon to be announced………….

This was posted on 8/28/09. This is only some of the article…

To enhance power generation capacity for our upcoming own projects and for further export we have following Power projects in advance stage of finalization:

- 120 MW Power Plant for captive use for upcoming pulp & paper projects. Boiler of this plant be a biomass based CFBC Boiler.

- 540 MW IPP project. This project will have coal based CFBC boilers. This project will have 4 units each of 150 MW power generation capacity to export 540 MW to national grid.

We are in advance stage of discussions with Chinese BTG manufacturers for these power plants. We are in advance stage of discussions with Chinese BTG manufacturers for these power plants.
??????????????????????????????????????????????????? In order to improve power generation capacity, enable the Group to better support other projects to improve power output at the same time, the Group’s existing power projects in the finalization of the following phases:
- 120MW????? – 120MW generating units. ??????????????????????????????? Attached to the planned pulp mill and paper mill, the boilers to bio-fuel circulating fluidized bed boiler;
- 540MW?IPP??? – 540MW of IPP projects. ?????????????????? Of coal used in boilers to generate electricity circulating fluidized bed boiler. ????4?150MW?????????????540MW? The project has 4 sets of 150MW generation unit, for a total to the national grid transmission 540MW

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl…

for those NOT following the drama of whether APWR has won the Thailand contract or why APWR has NOT released the news as of yet, well, stay tuned because about 5.4 Million SHORTS going to learn the hard way………..

For 20F 2008, …”In April 2008, we signed our first major distributed power generation contracts outside of China. We entered int agreements worth approximately $150 million with National Power Supply Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Advance Agro Public Co. Ltd., a large Thai-based conglomerate, to develop a 300 MW distributed power generation system located approximately 100 kilometers south of Bangkok, Thailand. The project was scheduled to commence in July 2008, but has been postponed due to the inability of parties to obtain project related financing during the current uncertain political and financial environment in Thailand. In October 2008, we were contracted to provide a $38 million turn-key solution and build a one million ton per year cement plant in Vietnam. The project is expected to be completed in late 2009”…

At the 2009 Q1 CC, Mr. Lu: “The Thailand project. For the first two project, PP9 and PP10, for this month it will [commence] startup. And the investor for these two projects will be Asia Investment Bank.

And for the following four projects, (technical difficulty) [25MW] and currently the MoU already been signed. And also the technical contract already been signed and the formal contracts are in the final negotiation stages. And also for these four projects and the [cash receivable] work inductions and for such projects — construction projects are also in negotiation and will be signed right away..”

At the 2009 Q2 CC, Mr Lu: …“ We are also continuing to negotiate with Advance Agro Public Co. Limited of Thailand, to expand the PP9 and PP10 DG projects that we started in July 2009.”…

Mr. Mak: …”Today, for under our revenue guidance of $320, we haven’t yet included the revenue from Thailand. So, I don’t think I could be able to comment this part in this section.”…

Once again, I think the management did a good job. If management keep their mouth shut, the basher will blame the lack of transparency; if there are any delays, the basher will blame them for the poor execution of the promises!

Good Luck!

Xiaozy

Nothing surprises me anymore on the Wall Street circuit as idiots move and make markets like its some kind of science, case in point, OmniVision (OVTI) vs A Power Energy (APWR) and the results and numbers associatted with each.

APWR printed nice profits (a penny below my estimate) and ended the quarter with 6.3 million more in earnings per share and affirmed year end conservative guidance without adding any wind turbine revenues or the Thailand contract they started working in July (which by the way will RAISE yearly guidance by at least 100 MORE million by years end). OmniVision, one of my ole favorites and one of my greatest money makers ever in trading history for me(hello ole shareholders, loving the stock price and your ”’luck” to BEAT stupid analysts estimates)) printed LOSSES and lost money everything was HORRIBLE, ie losses, this , that, etc but they “”BEAT”"” idiots from Wharton without a single clue of reality, and thus, the stock was UP 15% on LOSSES.

So , as idiot analysts go, so goes Wall Street. NOTE TO ANALYSTS::: if MANAGEMENT of APWR guides 320 million, how the FAWK can YOU IDIOTS guide 360 million ????? Wall Street says APWR missed by alot and yet they only MISSED my estimate by 2.7 million.

Wake up Wall Street::: GET A CLUE of Reality in spreadsheets and the world and how your ”’guidance”’ wrecks or makes a company due to retail investors too lazy to find this site to have a clue of reality. My 1st Quarter numbers spot on, my 2nd quarter numbers DEAD ON and yet Wall Street marches to their own drummers?????????

HINT::::::: your ESTIMATES are way TOO LOW for 3rd Quarter and 4th Quarter and APWR will BEAT and EXCEED your stupidity for year end so APWR stock price is going UP as reality of PROFITS and FUTURE PROFITS get modeled into the mixture!

2nd HINT:::::: FIRST QUARTER 2010 will be a RECORD, repeat , RECORD QUARTER where stupid Wall Street will model 1st quarter 2009 revenues (( revenues came in at 31 million)) and base estimates against year over year results. My INITIAL SPREADSHEETS have APWR delivering over 100 MILLION in revenues for 1st Quarter in 2010 so ””’compare”” 31 million vs 100 million in revenues and get back with me on the stock price vs the current $8.82!

Some major points came out from the APWR earnings Conference call:::: The future is very bright for those with vision and patience for growth and profit and revenue growth.

1. Started the Thailand contract PP09 and PP10 in July……this is very , very IMPORTANT as APWR will be able to work in the winter in Thailand and balance out revenues which are always seasonal and the expanded Thailand contract will add over 300 milliion to revenues ((IF)) they get the signed contract for next 3 years.

2. Secured customers for first 30 2.7mw’s Wind turbines and announced pricing of 4 million per unit for the larger 2.7’s and also announced customer for first 30 750kw’s =—NONE of this proposed 2009 wind turbine revenue is in current 2009 guidance of 320 million which will be raised by end of 2009 with the wind revenues added.

3. Foreign Partner supported , low cost vertical integrated wind producer with several joint ventures including GE and others will add signifigant revenues into 2010.

4. No revenues in current guidance from management on Thailand contract nor the wind turbines for 2009—my take is revenues will be adjusted higher end of 3rd quarter earnings

5. No revenue in current guidance on any wind revenues for current 2009 planning===huge upside potential for end of 2009 with over 100 million in wind revenues added to current 320 million revenues is my estimate. Future wind revenues for 2010 could be highly signifigant if and when current supply component problems are solved.

6. 80% of components for 2010 will be produced inside China thus lowering pricing for future unit sales

7. Eva_Tech Solar aquisition was pure ‘’steal” price given the Chinese government grants used to finance the aquisition which could add signifigant future revenues using solar inside wall panels and Youlanda as the construction partner.

All in all, APWR met my estimates but missed Reuters Thomson guesses………..so what??? APWR prints profits and setting the stage for monumental GAINS down the road into the future. Maybe some of those idiots running wall street should consult with me for estimates cause APWR delivered 57 million in revenues vs my estimate of 60 million which printed 6.3 million of profits which equates to .14 cents PROFIT, something some folks sure have missed or forgotton. My estimate for profits was .15……….yep, I missed by a penny so the stock sold off 8%-10% based on what reasoning???

ABSOLUTE STRONG BUY when price is low………accumulate at will cause one PR about the Thailand success in negotiation for that expanded contract will shoot APWR price northward to the tune of about 30% one day gain………”"”"STRONG BUY RECOMMENDED” and I am adding at current pricing!

all the down tracking on APWR pre market is just “”"NOISE”" compared to the reality of somebody who cannot predict nor track nor know the future of APWR coming up into the next year……….APWR missed MY estimates by .01 and missed by 3 million in revenues (my estimate was 60 million) as per previous post PRE earnings release

so, depending on WHOM you read, the size and girth of the whale is in the eyes of the reader…….APWR reaffirmed GUIDANCE of 320 million for 2009 and printed 6 million in PROFITS, something that day traders and momentum traders refuse to acknowledge. The future is very bright for APWR into 2010 as joint ventures, aquisitions , and GE along with Thailand will make money into the future given the need for clean energy for the world and APWR is one of the leading clean energy companies in the world!

Given the future and predictions of RECORD EARNINGS for Q12010, I would be a STRONG BUYER for APWR going forward into the future given the recent MOU for Macau which if turned into revenues will DOUBLE revenues for 2010 and beyond.

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH end of 2010!

Recent Operating Highlights
– Formed two Joint Venture partnerships with Jiangsu Miracle to produce
and sell key wind turbine components in China
– Entered into MOU to acquire 100% of Japanese thin-film solar panel
equipment manufacturer EVATECH
– Completed assembly of two units of the 2.7MW wind turbines in
Shenyang; now waiting for the government permit for the Daxinglong
Mountain wind farm where the turbines will be installed
– Acquired Shenyang Huaren’s proprietary technology for 1.5MW-grade wind
turbines and took over its backlog to produce and sell 10 units of the
1.5MW wind turbines
– A-Power’s majority-owned Shenyang Power Group, a DG industry alliance,
signed MOU with Macau Natural Gas to construct an offshore liquefied
natural gas (LNG) complex

“During the second quarter, we made key strategic steps and forward- looking efforts to build a foundation for significant future growth,” said Mr. Jinxiang Lu, A-Power’s Chairman and CEO. “We devoted more time to upgrading our DG engineering service by creating additional value-added customized designs for biomass-powered micro grid systems, which we believe will be beneficial for building our track record in the fast-growing biomass power sector. On the new business front, we successfully signed several large-scale, 30MW-plus DG contracts that boosted our customer deposits and paved the way for significant growth in the near future. We entered into an MOU to construct a large offshore LNG complex and hope to sign definitive documents before the end of this year. We are also continuing to negotiate with Advance Agro Public Co. of Thailand to expand the PP9 and PP10 DG projects that we started in July of this year. And with Shenyang government’s avowed support for our majority- owned DG industry alliance, Shenyang Power Group, we are well positioned to win high-profile contracts for DG systems and micro power grids both in China and overseas.”

Mr. Lu continued, “As for our wind energy business, we are pleased that we have finished the assembly of the first two units of the 2.7MW wind turbines, and are now waiting for government review and approval of the Daxinglong Mountain wind farm in Liaoning Province, with installation expected to begin by early September. We have also secured customers for all of our first 30 units of the 2.7MW wind turbines, a substantial portion of which we anticipate will be shipped by the end of this year. In addition, by August of next year, our JV with GE Drivetrain is expected to commence trial production, followed by commercial production to supply to our wind turbine facilities, located just 10 minutes away in the Hunnan New District of Shenyang City, next year. Lastly, we anticipate our newly acquired proprietary technology for the 1.5MW wind turbines, and our newly established JVs with Jiangsu Miracle to produce low-cost wind turbine components such as blades, hubs and nacelle covers, could start adding to our competitive advantages to become a foreign-partner- supported, low-cost, vertically integrated 750KW to 2.7MW wind turbine supplier in China’s hyper-growth wind power market.”