Archive for January, 2010

Sometimes, in the stock market, one ends up with ridiculous valuations and like when APWR fell from $15 to $7.50 in a month this summer, its again approaching stupidity valuation levels of extreme value. APWR has fallen from $21 to $11.90 and is approaching a 50% one month haircut. Sometimes in life, you can get values you never ever thought possible a month ago. APWR has raised cash which has taken a quick dilution solution to raising cash which current shareholders surely dont like short term. However, one mans trash is another mans cash. The growth trajectory for APWR has never ever looked better and the values of today will not be the same.

IN MY HUMBLE OPINION, and having followed this stock for 18 months, you get a few opportunities in life to make a fortune and we are approaching ridiculous valuation levels that only come along once in a few lifetimes. APWR at $11 and change is a future steal given my price target end of 2010 is $28. Record revenues are coming for Q4 2009 and Q1 2010. Estimates for Q1 2010 vs 2009 is 104 million coming vs 31 million 2009. Anyone can obviously see multiples of growth coming for China and APWR and Green Energy. This isnt rocket science, this is plain earnings per share with future guidance going to be over 500 Million for 2010 vs 320 million for 2009. I would suggest buying with both hands cause once APWR announces their up and coming future wind China contracts, APWR goes north. My estimate is $28 end of 2010 with much higher revenues coming into 2011.

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  • if more companies were like Kohl’s who obviously “”GETS IT”" about going green……..U must have DEMAND for green power before the investment will follow!

    in News Departments > FYI
    by NAW Staff on Tuesday 26 January 2010

    Kohl’s Department Stores has purchased enough green power to meet 100% of its purchased electricity use with an annual green power purchase of nearly 1.4 billion kWh.

    With this latest purchase of renewable energy, Kohl’s increases its ranking to No. 2 overall and among Fortune 500 companies on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) listings of the top green-power purchasers. Kohl’s retains its top ranking among retailers.

    “Starting 2010 at 100 percent green power helps reduce our carbon footprint and brings us another step closer to achieving our goal of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the end of this year,” said Ken Bonning, Kohl’s executive vice president of store planning and logistics, in a statement. “We also continue to make energy management a priority and are pleased that our 400th location recently earned EPA’s Energy Star label.”

    Kohl’s purchases a combination of renewable energy certificates and utility green power products in the areas of solar, wind and biomass generation. Several Kohl’s initiatives reflect the use and support of green power, including purchasing 100 mWh of renewable wind power annually from wind projects in Texas, North Dakota and South Dakota.

    SOURCE: Kohl’s Department Stores

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  • A-Power Energy Generation Systems Ltd. to Develop a 19.5MW Wind Farm in Shandong
    Province
    - $36.2M contract includes equipment, construction and installation -
    - Project to begin November 2009 -
    SHENYANG, China, Oct 14, 2009 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ — A-Power Energy Generation
    Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: APWR) (“A-Power” or “the Company”), a leading provider of distributed power generation (“DG”)
    systems in China and a fast-growing manufacturer of wind turbines, today announced the Company has won a “fullresponsibility”
    contract to develop a 19.5MW wind farm in the Donggang, Rizhao City of Shandong Province (“the Rizhao
    Donggang Wind Farm”), in Eastern China, for the Shandong subsidiary of Datang International Power Generation Co., Ltd.
    (“Datang Power”). The total value of the contract is $36.2 million.
    A-Power is to supply the wind turbines, the towers and the foundations, and oversee the construction, subcontracting and
    installation for this project. The estimated cost breakdown is as follows: equipment procurement $33.7 million; construction and
    installation $1.9 million; miscellaneous $586,000. The project is due to commence November this year and the estimated
    completion time is November 2010.
    The Rizhao Donggang Wind Farm project, owned by Rizhao City Hengyuan Wind Power Co., Ltd., has an initial requirement of
    eight units of the 2.5/2.7MW wind turbines, and it is expandable to 100MW. The project has been approved by the provincial
    Development and Reform Commission and the National Resources Bureau of Shandong Province and the permit for
    transmission to the electricity power grid has been issued by the Shandong Electricity Co.
    “We are proud to announce our second wind farm full-responsibility project, after our Inner Mongolia project announcement in
    September,” said Mr. Jinxiang Lu, Chairman and CEO of A-Power. “To be able to work with Datang Power, which is China’s
    second largest state-owned power producer, speaks volume about our growing expertise in wind farm equipment supply,
    construction and engineering. We have already assembled teams for construction, installation and testing for the Rizhao
    Donggang project and will start on it early next month.”

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  • By Alex Morales

    Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Wind and solar developers will benefit from $120 billion in stimulus spending on clean-energy generation worldwide over the next two years, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimated.

    Of $177 billion of recovery funds pledged by governments to renewable power and energy-efficiency measures, $25 billion was paid out in 2009 and $60 billion will follow in each of the next two years, the company said in a report released today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

    “The flow of ‘green stimulus’ cash is growing but the recovery of the capital markets means it will not be the only game in town,” Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chief Executive Officer Michael Liebreich said in an e-mail. “All in all, 2010 looks like being a year of moderation. Energy prices are high enough to allow steady investment in clean energy.”

    Companies from Columbus, Ohio-based American Electric Power Co., the second-biggest U.S. electricity generator, to Spain’s Iberdrola SA, the largest operator of wind farms, are vying for stimulus money awarded by governments in Asia, Europe and Latin America.

    Liebreich said in December that total investment this year in clean energy will likely by $200 billion, 38 percent more than the $145 billion spent in 2009. The challenge for lawmakers is to ensure they phase out stimulus spending without damaging the industry, New Energy Finance said today.

    ‘Urgent Question’

    “One of most urgent question facing policy-makers in clean energy as elsewhere is how to stop the stimulus funding in due course without causing the industry to collapse,” the group said in the report.

    The U.S. topped pledges for clean-energy recovery spending with $66.6 billion, followed by $46.9 billion in China, $16.4 billion in South Korea and $8.9 billion in Japan, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said.

    European companies have benefitted from stimulus grants in the U.S., pocketing more than half of $550 million of awards made on Sept. 22. Iberdrola, Dusseldorf, Germany-based E.ON AG and Enel SpA, Italy’s largest electricity producer, were among companies receiving cash in the U.S.

    Those promises helped total investment on clean-energy recover toward the end of 2009. Declines in the first quarter of last year pushed down spending 6 percent for the calendar year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said.

    “For much of the year it looked as though investment would be down by a much greater amount,” the group said. “In part, its healthy recovery was supported by the arrival of the first tranches of stimulus funding targeted at the sector around the world.”

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  • APWR gets another DPG contract and this one in Vietnam and 40 million in one year with warm weather work to supplement normal slow Q1! My opinion only, APWR is going UP !

    Press Release Source: A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. On Wednesday January 27, 2010, 9:28 am EST
    SHENYANG, China, Jan. 27 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ — A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. (Nasdaq: APWR) (“A-Power” or “the Company”), a leading provider of distributed power generation (“DG”) systems in China and a fast-growing manufacturer of wind turbines, today announced it has entered into a definitive agreement with China Machine-Building International Corporation (“CMIC”) to co-develop a turn-key solution in the construction of a major cement plant in Vietnam.

    This DG project with CMIC has commenced immediately with the construction duration of 12 months. The total contract has a value of approximately 40 million dollars with a down payment within 10 days from the contract date. No other details were disclosed.

    About A-Power

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  • The future of APWR just changed today as the start of shipping and receiving revenues begins in earnest for APWR and shareholders will see more and more wind turbine contracts coming for 2010 and beyond. The Shenyang factory has a capacity when fully operating of 1100MW’s of wind turbines per year which translates into about 2 billion dollars in gross revenues. The future looks much brighter for APWR going forward.

    Press Release Source: A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. On Wednesday January 27, 2010, 9:25 am EST
    SHENYANG, China, Jan. 27 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ — A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. (Nasdaq: APWR) (“A-Power” or “the Company”), a leading provider of distributed power generation (“DG”) systems in China and a fast-growing manufacturer of wind turbines, today announced it has delivered 10 units of 2.7 MW wind turbines in China.

    On September 16, 2009, the Company signed a “full-responsibility” contract to develop a 49.5MW wind farm in the township of Saiwusu, Guba County, Inner Mongolia, for the Urat Rear Banner-based Jihe Orient Wind Energy Co., Ltd. The first 5 turbines were delivered today.

    On October 14, 2009, the Company signed another contract to develop a 19.5MW wind farm in the Donggang, Rizhao City of Shandong Province. The first 5 turbines for this wind farm were also delivered today.

    About A-Power

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  • InvestForth takes the stage and sums up the future much better than I ever could for the future of APWR

    A-Power delivered 10 2.7MW Turbines today. As you know, a turbine has more than 8,000 parts. For the big ones, such as the 2.7 MWs, since not many manufacturers can fabricate those huge, high stress-resistant, complex parts, some of the parts are in short supply.

    A delivery of 10 turbines, the first large-size batch in APWR’s history – some see it as trivial – has several significances.

    (1) It signifies that most, if not all, of the supply chain kinks have been straightened out. And remember, although developing its own JVs for components (GE JV for gearbox and Jiangsu Miracle JV for blade and other components) will cost APWR much more upfront, it will help APWR gain more controls on the supply, delivery, and quality of the components and subsequently the final products. It will also increase APWR’s profitability per turbine, and help APWR’s R&D in the future. A-Power is thinking long-term.

    (2) It signifies that the assembly line is achieving high efficiency. As with any complex but standardized machineries or projects, the learning curve to complete the first one is quite long, steep, and costly. It takes disproportionately amount of time and efforts to complete the first one. After the first one is finally completed, the second one gets easier. When you reach the tenth, you have achieved greater efficiency; you are ready for the next hundreds.

    (3) It signifies that, from the cash flows perspective, A-Power has entered into a new stage. All those turbine factories building, JVs forming, employees traveling and training, downpayment (on components) making, etc., cost money, a lot of money. However, the drain on cash will be much lessened going forward, as funds, approx. $42M for the hardware and $3M for construction, installation, and miscellaneous for these 10 units, totaling $45M, can be recycled toward purchasing more parts for future deliveries and contracts. That’s 10 down and 18 to go for these 2 customers. Expect another delivery of 18 (15 by Jun. and 3 by Nov.) and $81M to come in to the A-Power coffer in the future months.

    (4) It signifies that, from the business perspective, any future sales just get easier, as existing and potential customers want to see whether APWR can deliver before expanding their existing projects or placing their new orders. Note that the Saiwusu, Inner Mongolia project can be expanded from 49.5MW to 400~500MW; and the Donggang, Rizhao City project is owned by the Datang Power, which manages over 50 power generation companies in 18 provinces throughout China with a total installed capacity of 25,000+MW as of year-end 2008. Datang is one of the biggest power generators in China. As they are required to generate certain percentage of their power from the renewables, I bet this won’t the last turbine order from Datang.

    Mark it down: Today is a milestone. Today A-Power the company has entered into a new phase in its corporate development history of becoming a premier new energy mini-conglomerate. Lu and Lin are thinking long-term, laying the foundations for growth. It might take them 4-5 years, or even longer, to develop. But as A-Power the company grows, APWR the stock will not be far behind. Think how much wealth A-Power will be creating in this process! (Some of that would be mine! How about you?)

    All that talks of buying at $11 and selling at $13 is nonsense. I loaded it up mostly at $3s and $4s (some at $5s and $6s); and I won’t be selling any of it until it crosses $100. (That implies a market cap of $6.6B at 66M shares in 2015, assuming all warrants exercised, Lu’s incentives fully granted and 3% per year dilution.) I just took a huge swing – not the first time, and it won’t be the last – and I haven’t blinked.

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  • China is actually spending some of that 454 Billion Green Energy stimulus money……..will APWR ever win any of this new money ???? My gut says YES………..

    China breaks ground at $17.6bn ‘mega’ wind farm

    China kicked off construction at the first of seven planned ‘mega’ wind farms that will top 10 gigawatts (GW) each, even as officials acknowledged the country’s wind ambitions are being undermined by its threadbare grid infrastructure.

    The commencement of work at the first mega project, sited in Gansu province in northern China, illustrates the future face of wind-power in China, according to Zhang Guobao, head of the National Energy Administration.

    Zhang nevertheless points to several critical problems dogging the development of the sector, including distribution imbalances between its remote wind-rich regions and its energy-hungry population centres; the long wait developers face to connect new wind projects to the electricity grid; and state policies that favour the construction of small, inefficient wind farms.

    But the seven mega wind farms planned by the National Energy Administration are meant to turn the tide on those issues, maximising the efficiency of the country’s wind programme through large-scale construction and transmission projects.

    The Gansu project will have installed capacity of 3.8GW by the end of 2010, and 12.7GW by 2015, according to state media. By 2020 it will reach its full size of 20GW – compared to the 22.5GW of output produced by the Three Gorges dam.

    The Gansu wind farm will be built in two phases near the city of Jiuquan for an estimated 120bn yuan ($17.6bn). Construction of the first phase will create 5,000 jobs and is being pursued by 20 wind developers – including six foreign investors.

    China has committed itself to producing 3% of its total energy from non-hydro renewable sources by 2020. China finished 2008 with 12.2GW of installed wind capacity, putting it behind only the US, Germany and Spain

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  • APWR Eva_Tech Solar Aquisition

    Why did APWR aquire some solar company named Eva_Tech and why has the stock price fallen 30% in five days ??? The answers will be coming ………

    EVATECH, founded in March, 1987, is an enterprise focusing on R & D and manufacture of amorphous silicon thin-film solar cell equipments, with its main products as amorphous silicon thin-film solar cell manufacturing equipments and its entire production line; flat-panel display related manufacturing equipments and its entire production line.

    Ever since its establishment, this enterprise has accumulated a business achievement of supplying for 46 companies in China. Being well-known for its high-level stability in production techniques, EVATECH is in possession of very strong capability to provide customized products and make sustainable technical improvements.

    Keeping an eye on those countries with best technologies in new energy sector in the world, Liaoning High-tech has made an emphasis on its inputs in the high-end technology targeting for building up the top level R & D team with the best R & D equipments. By making advantage of its low domestic production cost and strong Japanese R & D ability, LNHT will form a sharp competitive edge in the world wide range.

    For this acquisition of EVATECH, the various levels of local governments such as Liaoning Provincial Government, Shenyang Municipal Government, Shenyang Communist Party Committee, Shenyang Economy Committee and People’s Government of Hunnan New District have given their strong support both in policy and in coordination. In addition to the policy support, they also agreed to grant subsidies. Meanwhile during the whole process of this acquisition, leaders at all levels have presided guidance and paid their cares by helping solve difficulties and putting relevant policies into effect

    China attaches a high importance to new energy development, especially to the technology of amorphous silicon thin film solar cell. At present, this technology has entered into its maturity stage in some developed countries of the world. Under the same conditions, it possesses various kinds of advantages such as large power-generation capacity, cheap price, good performance at high temperature, short energy recovery period, and etc. This technology foresees a very broad application arena for civil use e.g. building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV), large scale & low cost power plants, solar lighting, and etc.

    The acquisition of Japan EVATECH by Liaoning Hi-Tech Energy Group will have a profound impact not only on the economic development of Shenyang city but Liaoning Province as well. By this symbolic step made in the solar energy industry, it will drive the regional economic development and lead to further expansion of the new energy application.

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  • April 27 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire Ted Turner says clean- energy technology is “the greatest business opportunity that the world has ever seen,” reminding him of cable television back when he founded CNN.

    “The more windmills there are, the better, and the more solar panels,” Turner said in an interview. “The field is wide open. This is a startup, like cable TV was 40 years ago.”

    Turner, the former vice chairman of Time Warner Inc., is the 376th richest person in the world, with an estimated net worth of $1.9 billion, according to Forbes magazine. It has also called him the largest individual landholder in the U.S.

    “I’m putting my money where my mouth is and I’ve made a multimillion investment in solar power,” Turner, 70, said in the interview in Washington on April 24. “I’m looking to make an investment in wind power as well.”

    Turner said he has a “multimillion-dollar” stake in First Solar Inc., the world’s largest maker of thin-film solar power modules. In 2007, Turner sold DT Solar, a commercial solar- project installer, to First Solar for $34 million.

    Lisa Morse, a spokeswoman for Tempe, Arizona-based First Solar, wasn’t available for comment. Phillip Evans, a spokesman for Turner, didn’t respond to an e-mail request for information about his holdings.

    First Solar rose $4.54, or 3 percent, to $152 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading and has climbed 10 percent this year.

    Solar Analysis

    Turner said he may expand his solar investments. If he enters the wind business as well, he said that wouldn’t put him in competition with his friend T. Boone Pickens, chief executive officer of BP Capital LLC, because the field is so open.

    Turner also has given money to George Washington University in Washington to support a new Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy. Barbara Tesner, assistant vice president of development for the university, declined to specify how much Turner donated.

    Turner said “one big question mark” hanging over the alternative-energy industry is the climate change legislation Congress is currently working on.

    “One reason we created this institute, they’re going to have, as I understand it, a government relations component, and we’re going to lobby for a strong energy bill that encourages the development of clean, renewable energy,” said Turner.

    “It’s absolutely imperative that we immediately, as fast as we humanly can, within 10 years, phase out major fossil fuel sources and change them over to clean renewable energy,” he said.

    Turner founded the Cable News Network in 1980. He is chairman of Turner Enterprises Inc., a closely held company based in Atlanta that manages his investments and land holdings, including more than 2 million acres in the U.S. and Argentina.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Tina Seeley in Washington at tseeley@bloomberg.net.

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