with or without the upcoming Texas wind farm for 1.5 billion, APWR is going UP. With the 1.5 billion Texas deal, APWR surges immediately the second the Texas financing is arranged. However, even if APWR does NOT get the Texas deal, there are plenty of huge, large CHINA wind farm contracts to win and get parts and pieces of to fill up the Shenyang Wind Turbine Factory. Its all good owning APWR long term for end of 2011. Another below Jan814_1999 post on estimates and guidance. IMHO, Jan814 is too high by a few million but trying to model APWR is one of the toughest jobs and estimates out there cause the model is so dynamic and changing by the minute with Solar, Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass and Wind Power always in motion. Jan814 one of the best writers on the net!

The 57 million shares are yearend F/D shares and include shares from options, shares from warrants including the new January 21 warrants, the January 21 financing shares, and the CEOs one million 2009 bonus shares. The 57 million shares also include five million future financing shares to help pay for the new Nevada plant , the Evatech China plant, and more turbine components, but do not include the two million 2010 CEO bonus shares because even though those shares are probable they are not yet guaranteed.
Now if we add 80 2.5MW turbines for the Texas wind farm in 2010, the revenue goes to $1.131 Billion, net income in dollars is $102.00 million, and EPS is $1.79. The Texas wind farm makes a difference.
As to what kind of a PE ratio we might apply to these earnings, consider the following.
1) Yahoo has APWR in the Electric Utilities industry and the average PE for those 63 public companies is 14.90. But there are many boring companies in that industry and APWR is more than a utility company. In fact it kind of stands out among those 63 companies because its’ year over year quarterly revenue growth is the sixth highest in the entire group. But a PE of 14.90 gives us a start.
2) APWRs current ttm PE is 15.75 even after the recent drop in price.
3) The average PE of China Analyst U.S. listed China stocks with a growth rate of 20-25% (APWR is 23%) is 22.34.
4) If the above estimates are close to reality, the various 2009 to 2010 growth rates come in as follows:
Without any Texas wind farm revenue:
Revenue growth will be 153% ($811 million versus $320 million). Earnings growth in dollars will be 145% ($76.40 million versus $31.20 million) . EPS growth will be 61% ($1.34 versus $.83).
With revenues from the Texas wind farm:
Revenue growth will be 253% ($1131 million versus $320 million). Earnings growth will be 227% ($102.00 million versus $31.2 million). EPS growth will be 116% ($1.79 versus $.83).
5) As of 1/29/10, Goldwind in China and a key competitor of APWR is trading at a 25.75 PE despite their recent announcement of a $1.5 billion share offering in Hong Kong.