I personally think Jan814 is a bit high and I think and have my numbers up for 670 Million ((SEE the side bar pages for 2010 Guidance)) and u will see my numbers……….however, with so many variables for APWR, anything is possible!

time to make a move

I have taken a look at what the coming revenue and earnings numbers might look like, not only to include the recent financings, but also to reflect the failure of APWR to generate any revenue from turbine sales in Q4 of 2009. For FY 2010, I looked at the possibilities in two ways. First, I excluded all revenue from the Texas wind farm just in case that project does not materialize. Second, and separately, I included the Texas wind farm in the study, but moved the wind farm schedule to the right with 80 turbines being delivered in 2010 (total will eventually be 240).
But let’s start with Q4.
Without getting into a lot of detail, my Q4 Non-GAAP EPS is now $0.37 and FY2009 is $0.83. I doubt if too many folks are going to care too much about Q4 despite it being a record quarter, because all eyes will be on FY2010 and the emergence of APWR as a significant player in the wind turbine business. The delivery of those first ten turbines was like a breath of fresh, pleasurable, air.
Let’s look at FY2010, WITHOUT any contribution from the Texas wind farm.
I have increased DPG revenue by 20% to $384 million. DPG net margin is 11%.
On the wind turbine side I have APWR shipping 100 2.7mw turbines, 20 2.5mw units to the Saiwusu Wind Farm in Inner Magnolia (5 already shipped), 8 to the Rixhao Donggang Wind Farm in eastern China (5 shipped), and 72 of the big turbines to CACS (that 380 LOI is still good through 2010) or other customers. That 100 units is just 33% of the Shenyang first line plant capacity (without the 30% plant expansion).
Turning to the smaller turbines, I have APWR shipping 10 of the 1.5mw units in 2010 (they planned to ship 10 in 2009) and 30 of the 750kw units (they had hoped to ship 30 in 2009). These smaller units will total 40 which is 9.5% of the second line capacity at the Shenyang plant.
The prices of all the turbines are $.5 million for the 750KWs, $1.5 million for the 1.5MWs and $4.0 million for each of the 2.5/2.7MW units, recognizing that the big turbines for Texas will sell for closer to $5 million but the high shipping and handling costs of those Texas units may mean that 20% (or $1 million of the $5 million) may not contribute to net margin. Net profit margins are 8% for all turbines.
Total revenue for FY2010 comes out to $811 million, net income is $76.40 million, and EPS is $$1.34 on 57 million shares.

despite the great numbers, AMSC is down 7% and my belief that the valuation P/e of AMSC was just too high. The quarter and guidance for AMSC was excellent but the relying on one single customer (SINOVEL) makes AMSC future a cloudy outlook going forward. Long term investors are probably taking profits and new investors are leery of taking a ride on a forward p/e of 40 ((which I agree is just too high)). As anyone who reads this blog knows, I sold AMSC way too early because of the high P/e and I continue to say that APWR is a much better VALUE for long term appreciation going forward. AMSC will continue its growth later in 2010 as the transmission side revenues start taking wins from other countries besides the USA in upgrading their transmission line side.

“We expect to end our fiscal year with continued top-line growth and strong profits,” said David Henry, AMSC’s senior vice president and chief financial officer. “As a result of our third quarter results, we are increasing our full-year guidance for both revenues and net income. For the full year fiscal 2009, we now expect revenues will be in a range of $312 million to $315 million, up from our previous forecasted range of $300 million to $310 million. We are increasing our gross margin forecast to approximately 36 percent from a range of 34 percent to 35 percent. Our GAAP net income forecast for fiscal 2009 also has been increased from a range of $11.0 million to $13.0 million, or $0.24 to $0.29 per diluted share, to a range of $14.0 million to $15.0 million, or $0.31 to $0.33 per diluted share. AMSC’s non-GAAP net income forecast has increased from a range of $27.0 million to $29.0 million, or $0.59 to $0.64 per diluted share, to a range of $29.5 million to $30.5 million, or $0.65 to $0.67 per diluted share. Finally, we continue to expect that AMSC will be net cash flow positive for fiscal year 2009.”

“As we detailed at our Analysts’ Day in November 2009, we expect AMSC’s growth to continue in fiscal 2010,” Henry continued. “We expect our revenue to exceed $400 million and our non-GAAP net income to exceed $54 million, or $1.15 per diluted share for full year fiscal 2010.”