4 Feb
As stock markets around the globe drop, the price of the corresponding stocks drop which creates a tidal wave of lower spending by consumers who feel like they have less money to spend due to their brokerage accounts are not worth as much. Like myself in APWR today, all the stock owners who lost 5% today are going to have 5% less to spend in ”’feel good”’ buying power. I define ”’feel good” buying power as the feeling of your spending values due to your net income or your housing value or your job earnings vs what you really need to buy.
Anything in the ”’big ticket”’ item for me in last few weeks ((APWR is down 40% in last 2 weeks)), is going to have to wait now given my ”feel good”’ buying power has been crushed. And, its not just me, its everyone that owned stocks today which got baked for 5% globally. If this global sell off continues, the world will come to a reeling halt like it did from Nov2008 to March2009. What changed the turn then was government spending stimulus plans which stopped the freefall of equities.
Sadly, if the governments do NOT step up again and prop up values for international loans, the rumors of Portugal and Spain will spread to little countries and pretty soon, you will have an ole fashion blood bath like today where most markets lost 5% of all values.
Nobody cared about Cisco best earnings in history of company and forward guidance and great balance sheet and wonderful spending guidance and hiring……………nope, they were just selling everything. When 7 of S&P 500 stocks were green and the other 493 were RED, I rest my case. A few trillion were lost in ”’feel good buying power” today alone.
8 Responses for "Global Losses Connundrum/ Feel Good Buying Power"
Ski – I have noticed over the past week or two that Market Edge and others have downgraded APWR. I guess i am not understanding the methodology behind these downgrades. Fundamentals have not changed but instead have improved and the stock price has come into bargain territory. They all were set at buy when the SP was at 17-20. Got any suggestions causing the move?
Connor- I would venture to guess that many of these analysts are looking in the rear view mirror in an attempt to get a sense of what is going on with APWR. I can’t recall where/when the study was…but there is a study that suggests analysts in general don’t have good prognostic abilities…unless you know of individual analysts within a particular sector.
I personally think that APWR is approaching exceptional value levels and will be doubling my position in the next couple of weeks or so. The key is the rest of the market…the broader markets could be the trump card. In addition (while it is only a hunch) I think that there will be some announcement surrounding Chinese new year. Q4 results and guidance will be helpful for a robust “pop” in the PPS.
Good luck to all.
Peace.
Rod..I have to disagree with you on APWR approaching exceptional values. They are in an extreme exceptional valued position at this point. Looking out conservatively, i see nothing out there that has the potential to reap a 300% or more gain this year. I see some doublers like GE but no Triplers or higher. I am looking for some recovery of other equities im in so i can also up my position in APWR. If it stays down another week of two that would be fine with me as i have several family members agreeing with this companies potential that will be entering this week. I look forward to tracking APWR’s progress for the next 5 years. To all who contribute to this site, keep up the good work and keep us informed.
My guess is that analyst seem to ride on emotional moves. When the stocks running up they are upgrading and they quietly downgrade when it tanks.
How can one determine a buy at $20 the change to a sell at $11.50. Nothing has changed here. The Texas project is facing the same issues it would have regardless and will close soon. It big money making even bigger money. It a no brainer investment for the Chinese Gov’t. The only issue now is there was some shares issued which was so predictable we talked about it here for the past several months. I think the market is overreacting to the Chinese Gov’t to slow its growth. 11% is not sustainable but 7% is pushing it still. 7%??? Thats still a lot of growth.
Analysts are basically just ”’paid shills”’ and I never buy nor sell based on some analysts getting a paycheck to cover or begin coverage or have his brokerage company selling the stock…………..thus, THIS is why i started my own ”research” and do my OWN research……….
Paid Analysts have NEVER been close on APWR, too many moving parts and too much uncertainity. As far as recommending to buy or sell, I look at valuation and future appreciattion and earnings per share
if the overall world markets dont tank, APWR is set for huge appreciation going forward into 2010 and 2011
Ski – Agreed!! When APWR sat at $3.50 a share nearly all analyst were warning to stay away from this one. I myself went against the grain and just tried to figure out what the numbers were telling me and what a story they told. It made no sense to me how they could make the determination they did. I bought anyways and the stock took off. Then the upgrades came at $17 to $20 per share. I myself would still keep the sentiment that at $20 per share APWR would still be a buy and at $12 per share would be an extreme buy. The end of 2010 will bring us a SP of above the $30 mark barring there is not another global meltdown. Then again another downturn may ignite more stimulus to ignite APWR and many other greentechs to much higher levels. Trading APWR is about trading on the basic human instincts and that is to survive, breathe clean air, and have light when its dark. We as a human race have the understanding that burning fossil fuels will buy time but not sustain us through millenniums. APWR and the Greentech revolution is just getting started. Think outside the box and buy into the green.
Ski – Now that the Chinese are scaling back their growth to sustainable levels do you still feel GS is right on on their estimates for oil prices? I still say they are a couple of years off. The prices will go up but it will take a minute. I do think most countries understand this and are undertaking energy independence from foreign oil providers. They must act now to prevent problems in the future and Wind and Solar are the solutions today. They will get em up. We can also look out into the future and see that wind turbines and solar panels do not last forever so reoccurring business is inevitable which will further APWR’s growth for decades to come. You are spot on on this one.
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