great story today in Wall Street Journal today on Wind Power………can NAT GAS torpedo the wind Industry??? Over my dead wind blade waving arm!!

BUSINESSMARCH 2, 2010.Natural Gas Tilts at Windmills in Power Feud By RUSSELL GOLD

TAFT, Texas—Wind power was a bit player in Texas as recently as four years ago. Today, wind turbines produce a significant share of the state’s electricity.

But the growth of wind power has attracted powerful critics: the owners of natural-gas power plants.

Many environmental groups talk of how wind and relatively clean-burning natural gas can partner to displace dirtier coal, creating a path to power the U.S. while releasing fewer greenhouse gases. A bitter fuel fight in Texas points to a different future: one in which gas and wind are foes.

The gas and wind factions have been clashing over the state’s operating rules for the past several months. The gas people say the playing field is tilted in wind’s favor; wind accuses gas of trying to snuff out the nascent wind energy sector.

The success of wind power in Texas has come at the expense of natural gas. If the wind build-out continues, by 2013 the amount of gas consumed to make electricity could fall by 18.5%, as gas plants sit idle for longer, according to Tudor Pickering & Holt, a Houston-based energy investment bank.

At the heart of the battle is a fight over the vicissitudes of wind itself. The wind industry argues that since it can’t control when the wind blows, it shouldn’t be held to the same rules that require everyone else to make payments when they fail to deliver promised power. The natural-gas generators say everyone should operate under the same rules, and lament that wind’s success is merely coming at the expense of another relatively clean energy source.

Similar fights are shaping up elsewhere. In the Midwest and Wyoming, fossil-fuel companies are questioning whether wind is getting too many advantages from government.

The lure of harnessing the wind has attracted big players. Wind-farm developers include NextEra Resources, a division of FPL Group Inc., the giant Florida-based power company, and E.On AG, the huge German power company. General Electric Co. is a major manufacturer of 400-foot-tall wind turbines and United Technologies Corp. recently entered the field.

The gas-wind feud is a testament to renewable energy’s rapid maturation. Texas, with its wide-open flat spaces, has 9,400 megawatts of wind-power generation capacity—more than all the power plants in Utah. Texas has more wind power than any other state, according to the American Wind Energy Association, more than three times as much as California.

The Texas wind figure is expected to double by 2013 as more transmission lines are built. In the past three years, wind has come to provide 6% of the Lone Star State’s power, up from 2%. Gas’s share has dropped to 42% from 46%.

The stakes are high: The wholesale value of electricity generated in Texas’s primary power grid was $34 billion last year, according to state figures; the state doesn’t break out the dollar size of the market by fuel type.

this new policy is why APWR is expected to soar in the coming years as China actually builds clean energy plants and the USA just likes to talk alot……….

BEIJING: The government has formulated a 10-year program under which clean energy will account for 15 percent of the total consumption mix by 2020, a top official has revealed.

To realize the goal, the government will invest billions in the construction of nuclear power stations, wind farms, solar power plants and research of renewable energy technologies, said Zhang Guobao, head of the National Energy Administration.

Zhang told China Daily that the program will soon be made public but did not specify a date.

He also said the National Energy Commission, the apex body set up in January to coordinate energy policy and headed by Premier Wen Jiabao, will hold its first meeting soon.

Zhang forecast a boom in the building of renewable energy infrastructure in the coming five years to meet the goal, which Wen pledged to global leaders at the Copenhagen climate change summit in December. The premier also pledged that the country will reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels.

“Power projects take a long time to be up and running, and we are basically allowed five years to complete them although it is a 10-year program,” said Zhang. “Otherwise, the facilities cannot be put into use by 2020.”

Official figures show that renewable energy accounted for 9.9 percent of total energy consumption last year, compared to 8.5 percent in 2008. Amid the global financial crisis, the government has decided to develop renewable energy as part of a stimulus package to keep the economy on the fast track.

Last year, groups of researchers, scientists and officials drafted the program under the supervision of Wen and Vice-Premier Li Keqiang.

The National People’s Congress, the top legislature, recently passed an amendment to the renewable energy law to require power grid companies to buy all the electricity produced by renewable energy generators.

All these efforts reflect the strategic importance of the renewable energy industry, said Zhang, adding the policy will offer more opportunities for global partners.

“China and the United States have already strengthened cooperation in the regard by launching joint projects and research centers,” said Zhang.

US President Barack Obama, in his first State of the Union address, said that “there’s no reason Europe or China should have the fastest trains, or the new factories that manufacture clean energy products”.

“I am quite happy the US has realized our competitiveness in the regard,” said Zhang.

However, Zhang is concerned about some disturbing trends.

Last year, China’s total energy consumption reached 3.1 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, up 6.3 percent from 2008.

This was in contrast with a previous downward trend when total energy consumption growth declined from 9.5 percent in 2005 to 4 percent in 2008.

But last year, China’s economic growth, which stood at 8.7 percent, was the lowest during the past five years.

“It appears that some local governments approved energy-guzzling projects during economic crisis,” said Zhang. “So only by fully implementing our energy saving regulations can we realize economic growth with less energy consumption.”

Bao Wanxian contributed to the story.

APWR has an existing two power plant biomass plant in Thailand ongoing and is looking for more business from Double AA Paper and Thailand………..and the Thailand work is warm weather Q1 type bonanza for APWR

The Pulp Invasion:

The international pulp and paper industry in the Mekong Region

ADVANCE AGRO

Advance Agro Public Company Limited is the largest fully integrated pulp and paper manufacturer in Thailand. The company manufactures and distributes pulp and printing and writing paper in Thailand and exports to Europe, Asia, USA, Africa and countries in the Middle East (Wright www 1). Seventy per cent of the company’s production is exported, the two largest markets being China and Japan (Woranuj 2000).

Advance Agro is part of the Soon Hua Seng (SHS) Group. SHS was founded in the 1950s by members of the Dumnernchanvanit family, which still controls the Group (AA www 2). SHS boasts of being the biggest rice and cassava exporter in the world (Mallet 1992) and started growing eucalyptus in 1982 as an alternative to crops such as rice and cassava. . In 1987, SHS started to plant eucalyptus on a commercial scale and formed Advance Agro to produce pulp and paper (AA www 4).

Advance Agro was incorporated in 1989, and listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in February 1995. The major shareholders are the Soon Hua Seng Group (47.1 per cent), officers and directors of Advance Agro (8.9 per cent), Stora Enso (19.9 per cent), Oji Paper (5.5 per cent) and the Commonwealth Development Corporation (1.1 per cent) (AA www 2).

Advance Agro’s and the SHS Group’s management are well connected with Thailand’s political elite. Virabongsa Ramangkura, Advance Agro’s chairman, served as an economic advisor to General Prem Tinsulanonda, Thailand’s prime minister in the 1980s. In the mid-1990s, he was finance minister during General Chatichai Choonhaven’s administration and was deputy premier in charge of economic affairs under Prime Minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. Virabongsa is an advisor to Bangkok Bank, which has outstanding loans of approximately US$850 million with the SHS Group (AA www 3). In November 2000, Virabongsa became chairman of the Thai language newspaper and magazine publisher Siam Rath Co (Achara 2000).

Kitti Dumnernchanvanit, President of SHS, was a Senator in the Thai Senate, and an economic advisor to the Prime Minister (Sonnenfeld 1998a: 66). Until 2000, he was a director of Bangkok Bank. Kitti’s son Yothin Dumnernchanvanit is the General Manager of Advance Agro (Bangkok Post 24 April 2000).

Advance Agro’s first mill opened in 1996, and the second in 1998, at Tha Toom in Prachinburi province, 120 kilometres from Bangkok (AA www 1). Total production capacity is 430,000 tonnes of pulp per year (Srisamorn 2000). Raw material is eucalyptus and imported long-fibre pulp. Advance Agro manufactures an office paper called “Envirocopy Premium”. Advance Agro markets the paper as elemental chlorine free, not using timber from rainforest, produced in a mill which uses minimum water and uses effluent to irrigate tree plantations. The company describes the plantation areas as old rice growing areas now degraded after generations of rice farming (Hobbs 1998).

Advance Agro exports pulp to mills in Tasmania belonging to AMCOR, the Australian paper and packaging giant (BWC 1999).

Advance Agro does not actually own any of its own plantations, instead purchasing the wood from Agro Lines, another member of the SHS Group. Agro Lines obtains its wood from four sources:

from its own plantations (which in 1997 covered 31,000 hectares);
from plantations owned by the SHS Group;
from local farmers under contract to Agro Lines (in 1997, 46,000 hectares); and
from individual farmers (AA www 3).

The coming earnings are going to be outstanding if my numbers and estimates are close. The guidance for APWR for 2009 was a total of 320 million and APWR will have to do 130+ Million for Q4 to achieve this number for the year of 2009. Guidance going forward will be more important and more variable given the unknowns and what we think we might know that we really dont know till they print the confirmed financing deal for Texas. With the Texas wind farm, the guidance will be off the charts. Without Texas, APWR guidance is going to be relatively weak unless APWR has some other China Wind Contracts that I do not know about. Whereever the numbers fall, my estimate for Q1 2010 is 90+ million and my 2010 estimate for the year is 640 million plus or minus 10%.

Nothing is written in stone and these estimates assume quite a few variables that will be upped or downed over the year. Hopefully, we will be upping the guidance going forward into the year as APWR usually only “”GUIDES”" on signed contracts that are fully funded.
Paid Analysts have 104 million for Q1 2010 and 560 Million for the year so far. Of course these numbers can and will be guided UP with other new wins announced during the year!

Sinovel and AMSC both participating in the larger Megawatt wind turbines for China but on the APWR website, it is now saying APWR is working on a 3.0mw wind turbine.

A-Power’s Wind Turbine Products cover a very wide and complete range of types and sizes, mainly including 225KW?750KW?1.5MW?2.0MW and 2.5MW.
Currently, the company is preparing to do R & D jointly with its cooperative partners on wind power generating units of 3.0 MW and above.

Everyone has an opinion and this guest writer Jan814 makes some great points for comparing APWR to the next Google of renewable energy. Everyone is always looking for the next google flying under the radar screen and unheard of with large growth models potential……….APWR fits the bill perfectly!

We are all looking for the next Microsoft or Google or Intel. I have been researching companies for many years. I have not seen many companies with as compelling a set of wealth creation possibilities as APWR presents. We all wish events would move faster. We wish we could get more answers to more questions, sooner. We wish the revenue and EPS numbers would grow more steadily, unencumbered by economic slowdowns, part shortages, or management miscalculations. It is never that easy. APWR is in an industry that will revolutionize the way energy is created and utilized. It is in the country with the most urgent need for alternative energy development, and use. Its management is proven; its engineering corps is exceptional; its DPG growth record is superb and wind power growth will follow; its joint ventures are impressive; its ties to governments are enviable; and its migration to a worldwide player is well underway. APWR may or may not turn out to be the planet’s greatest corporate story, but it will be great enough to be the envy of a good number of other corporate entities. All investing is a bit of a gamble. But the degree of gamble is measured by our ability to visualize and judge the future. We will sometimes lose. But for now, we need only look at the APWR progression to see that this game is well worth playing. So look ahead my friends. The view is gorgeous.
Jan

My sincere thanks to Matt an Penny for taking the time and energy to come all the way to the USA to study what Britain can do better in wind energy to provide clean power and clean jobs for Britain. Thanks also to Whole Foods in Boulder for allowing us to film inside the store and even more thanks to Whole Foods for being the largest corporate wind power buying in the USA. If more companies were like Whole Foods, the demand for wind power would increase as more and more corporations demand to be powered by wind power. Whole Foods ‘”GETS IT”" about renewable energy!

I am hoping that what Matt and I and Penny discussed and filmed and recorded will be taken to heart because the USA is falling behind in wind power. The USA talks alot about being number one in wind power but China is going to clean our wind blades very shortly as China continues to spend and spend on green energy power. Everyone thinks that China is just growth and pollution, however, the Chinese have targeted the GREEN JOBS from Wind Power for future growth and if the USA does not get its financing together, China is going to pass us in 2011 for megawatts of wind power deployed and built.

Sinovel, Dongfang, and Goldwind will continue to be #1, #2, and #3 in wind megawatts built inside China. However, there are new entrants like APWR where the USA investors can and will benefit as GE partnership becomes more obvious over time and as China ramps, APWR stock price will ramp over time. This APWR is NOT for the faint of heart nor rent money, this is a high beta high reward volatile rocket stock and I expect APWR to easily double by end of year 2010. Then, the real growth story will start in earnest, this year 2010 is just like the preliminaries to a race and as GE revenues rise and Solar ramps into 2011, APWR is going to rocket also in stock price appreciation. The Texas 600MW Wind Farm must be financed in full by end of March to catch earnings momentum……….or else, a new China wind farm contract could also provide explosive growth in the short term! This is the time, APWR is the company and GE is the partner…………can APWR get Texas 600MW wind farm financed ????

somebody from the Yahoo message board brought up a pretty good point, how many Wind Turbines can APWR actually ship for 2010 ??? The total wind turbine capacity is 1150MW for the Shenyang factory at present capacity. How many wind turbines can APWR actually ship in 2010 ??? Management has said 100 without the Texas contract signed and financed.

How many will APWR actually ship in 2010??? My numbers have them OK with 60 for the year but I am surely hoping for a whole lot more……….100 wind turbines shipped would bring their wind numbers in at 450 Million just for wind alone. With 300 Million DPG run rate, that would put APWR in at 750 Million guidance for 2010. Quite an improvement from 320 million revenue run rate.

How many wind turbines do U think APWR is going to be shipped by APWR for 2010 ???

somebody might know something we dont………could APWR land a big china wind farm contract??? I sure hope so!

APWR options saw interesting call activity today. A total of 2,672 put and 13,951 call contracts were traded raising a low Put/Call volume alert. Today’s traded Put/Call ratio is 0.19. There were 5.22 calls traded for each put contract.

Options can be used as predictors of stock behavior. Investors can use Put/Call ratios as technical indicators to read for signs of institutional sentiment. The Put/Call ratios offer insight to investors and can be used as either a direct or contrarian indicator for trading decisions. Unusual volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move.

A-Power Energy Generation Systems (APWR) closed at $13.26 in the last trading session and opened today at $13.02. APWR is trading at $13.74, up $0.48 (+3.62%) in today’s trading session. The daily low is $12.52 and the high is $13.74. The trading volume of 2,047,206 is above the average volume of 2,022,210 shares. APWR is trading below the 50 day moving average and higher than the 200 day moving average. A-Power Energy Generation Systems has earnings per share of $0.55. The stock’s 52 week low is $3.00 and 52 week high is $21.04.

Sasha Gelf
Options Analytics Group
sasha.gelf@marketintellisearch.com

Study ranks Kansas 2nd in nation for wind power
Published 2/23/2010 in Local News

By Dion Lefler

The Wichita Eagle

(MCT) — For years, Gov. Mark Parkinson has been telling anyone who would listen that Kansas has the third-largest potential in the nation for generating wind power.

Now, he’ll have to rewrite his speech.

Kansas is now No. 2 for wind potential, according to data released Friday by the Department of Energy.

The new study vaulted Kansas and Texas — the new No. 1 — past former wind-potential leader North Dakota, which fell all the way to No. 6 on the new list.

Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota round out the new top five.

The numbers show that Kansas has the potential to generate 3.6 million gigawatt hours of electricity from wind — roughly equivalent to 10 times the power consumed by the state of California in a year.

Kansas’ wind potential was upgraded from earlier estimates of 1 million gigawatt hours.

The governor was delighted.

“This is great news for our state and the entire Midwest,” Parkinson said in an e-mail response to questions from The Eagle. “This latest assessment from the Department of Energy underscores our potential.”

A big reason that Kansas scores so well on wind potential is the amount of land available for windmills, said Michael Brower, a doctor of meteorology and a principal in AWS Truewind. The Albany, N.Y., company performed the wind research underlying the new government estimates.

Kansas’ flat geography helps its wind potential, too.

While other states have good wind along mountain ridgelines, there often isn’t very much space for developing wind farms there, he said.

In Kansas, “just about anywhere you throw a dart at the map, you find a decent wind project site,” he said.